Buy, Watch or Pass - Week 10

Buy, Watch or Pass

Every week, I will examine some of the more obscure top performers in Fantasy Football. Here are the names I came across in Week 10:

QB's

Steve McNair, Baltimore Ravens - 373 pass yds, 3 TD's, 2 INT's

Ever since Brian Billick took over the play calling, McNair has suddenly become a whole different QB. The last 3 weeks, he's thrown for 777 yards, 5 TD's, 2 INT's & a QB rating over 90. With his team down by 10 entering the 4th quarter, McNair showed he can still make the big throws in an incredible come from behind victory versus Tennessee. With the ground game producing minimal yardage, it appears that the Ravens will be throwing more and more down the stretch run. Do keep in mind what happened to Michael Vick a couple weeks ago when he had 2 great games and then followed with 2 stinkers, so you do want to exercise caution. However, we're entering fantasy playoff territory in a couple weeks, which means you'll need to start preparing your lineup & bench. If you are in need of a backup QB, McNair could be your man. He has some lax secondaries, including next week versus Atlanta, the rest of the way. BUY

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys - 308 pass yds, 2 TD's

Can you believe this guy is still available in 56% of ESPN's fantasy football leagues? Even if you are cruising in first, it never hurts to add an elite QB. 3 starts, 862 pass yards, 5 touchdowns & 1 INT and a fat 101.2 QB rating. He has matchups versus Tampa Bay, New York Giants, New Orleans, Atlanta & Detroit on his schedule still. He has Terrell Owens, Terry Glenn & Jason Witten to throw too. There really isn't much else to say. He's not a fluke. BUY

RB's

Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants - 9 rush yds, 2 TD's

When it gets to be this time of year, it's hard to find running backs that have value because they are usually all gone by now. One that may be available that you might be interested in is Brandon Jacobs. Every Tiki Barber owner is displeased with Jacobs because he has stolen all the goal line carries & most of the touchdowns. Last Sunday against Chicago: 2 carries, 9 yards, 2 touchdowns. This isn't a freak occurrence either, as he now has 5 touchdowns in the last 5 games. He's generally getting 7 to 11 carries a game, primarily as a short yardage back, so the opportunities are there. There is a lot of risk involved & how many TD's he gets will depend on how well the Giants offense is running. He's ok if you are desperate for a running back, but I hope you have someone else to rely on come playoff time. BUY if you're desperate, otherwise PASS

Ladell Betts, Washington Redskins - 83 rush yds

There wasn't anything special about Ladell Betts' stat line on Sunday, but on Tuesday news broke out that Clinton Portis broke his hand and will be out for the season, making Betts the starting running back for the rest of the year. What can we expect out of Betts? He received 20 carries on Sunday after Portis went down, so it's good to know that he will receive the bulk of the load. The Redskins schedule versus run defenses is moderate the rest of the way, couple that with Betts' current 4.5 yards a carry and he should have some good value as a number 2 running back. The Redskins did announce they are going with 2nd year man Jason Campbell as their QB the rest of the season, so if Campbell starts making mistakes, it could potentially lead to less carries. At this point in the season though, grabbing a starting running back with potential is worth the risk. BUY

WR's

Mark Clayton, Baltimore Ravens - 125 rec yds, 1 TD

When a QB starts throwing the ball well, everyone becomes a beneficiary, including Mark Clayton in Baltimore. During the last 2 games with the new & improved McNair, he's caught 15 passes for 198 yards & 1 TD. Clayton did have a 100 yard receiving game in Week 6 but a big chunk of his yardage came off of 2 tipped balls not intended for him. This time, these stats are legit. Clayton was a 1st round pick last year with homerun speed, so the talent is there. With some sketchy secondaries left on the Ravens schedule, Clayton could certainly become a sleeper towards the end of this season. If you are a risk taker or are in need of a wide receiver, Clayton is your man. BUY

Malcom Floyd, San Diego Chargers - 109 rec yds, 1 TD

Everybody got into the act in that high scoring affair in Cincinnati last Sunday. Malcom Floyd, the 3rd receiver for San Diego, even hauled in 5 catches for 109 yards & a TD. As good as Philip Rivers as looked, Floyd is still only the 3rd receiver and hasn't produced much prior to this game. Until he has a starting role, mark this game off as an anomaly. PASS

Reche Caldwell, New England Patriots - 90 rec yds, 1 TD

I've written about Reche Caldwell before, and after watching him play against the Jets, you can clearly see Brady is starting to develop more chemistry with him. He didn't do much against the Colts the previous week, but not many wide receivers have (they're allowing only 103 yards on average to receivers per game). With Green Bay coming up next week, Caldwell could very well have another strong game. There are a couple other games in which you could start Caldwell again as well, so considering we're getting deep in the season, he deserves a spot on your roster if you have one. BUY

Patrick Crayton, Dallas Cowboys - 104 rec yds, 1 TD

Filling in again for injured Terry Glenn, Patrick Crayton had another fine game. He hauled in 5 passes for 104 yards & 1 TD. With Romo at QB, he certainly would be productive in a starting role if Glenn were to go down for the season. Glenn is questionable next week, but even if Crayton were to start, they go up against Indianapolis whom has been tough on wide receivers this year. The rest of the schedule is golden, so if Crayton were to find a way to start, he would have great fantasy value. Keep an eye out on what's going on in Dallas. WATCH

Do you have questions regarding your Fantasy Team? Send them to Alex The Great at http://sports.enterto.com/ask_alex.html. Every week I will answer a couple questions and post them directly at http://sports.enterto.com

Alex Martinez is a fantasy sports writer for Enterto.com. He has been following sports & playing fantasy sports since he was a kid.

Bengals' Chances of Beating Jets in AFC Wild Card Game

One of the two NFL wild card playoff matchups to be played this weekend will be the New York Jets visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. This will be an interesting game on many levels, and odds makers have a tight spread pegged, as the Bengals are projected to win by a mere 2 1/2 points.

Why is the spread so tight when the Bengals clearly looked like the better team through the course of the season. Are we to believe that the Jets, who many believe shouldn't have even made the playoffs, can cruise through this matchup to beat Cincinnati on their own turf?

Well, one factor that needs to be acknowledged is the health of star wide receiver Chad Ochocinco. The revival of Ochocinco (formerly known as Chad Johnson) is believed by many to be a key factor in the bounce back year that Cincy enjoyed.

After a disappointing 2008, Chad was back in full effect in 2009, posting 1,047 receiving yards and 9 touchdown catches. He was the team's best receiver by far.

Unfortunately, he hurt his knee during last Sunday's matchup at New York against the Jets while the teams were warming up. The injury has been called a bruise, and it clearly affected him on Sunday. In fact, he wasn't even able to play.

The good news is that he practiced fully this week and appears to be ready to play. The chemistry between Ochocinco and quarterback Carson Palmer could very well be a major factor in the team's success against the Jets on Saturday.

With a 6-2 home record, Cincinnati is just about as strong as any football team in the league at home. This bodes well for the franchise. They've also had a rough last few seasons, so you can be sure that the fans will be full of energy and fully behind their team on Saturday.

The key to the team's success will be the ability to penetrate the dangerous Jets defense. If Carson Palmer is on top of his game, anything is possible.

Visit Nathan Gero's new blog about sconce lighting at http://sconcelighting.org.

The Upcoming 2006 NFL Football Season

The 2005 NFL football season passed with new all time records being set, with everything from Shaun Alexander's record breaking 28 touchdowns in one season to Nathan Vasher's longest return of a missed field goal at an incredible 108 yards (also the longest play of any kind in NFL history) to the Seattle Seahawks amazing regular season performance and loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XL.

Super Bowl XL was the 40th Super Bowl. The game was played on February 5, 2006 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan, following the regular football season of 2005. The American Football Conference (AFC) champions, the Pittsburgh Steelers, defeated the National Football Conference (NFC) champions, the Seattle Seahawks, 21-10. Although the Seahawks won the turnover battle, 2-1, and outgained the Steelers by 57 yards, Pittsburgh won on the strength of three big plays converted for touchdowns. The Seahawks were plagued by controversial penalties, dropped balls, poor clock management, and a game-ending interception on a drive deep into Steelers' territory. This was the Steelers fifth Super Bowl win, and with this victory the Steelers join the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers for the most Super Bowl wins by a team.

The upcoming 2006 NFL season will be the 87th season of the National Football League. This season is scheduled to begin on September 7 and the opening kickoff game will feature the Miami Dolphins playing the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania at 8:30 pm Eastern time (ET). The regular series of games start on Sunday, September 10, with the Indianapolis Colts playing the New York Giants in New York. Then on Monday Night, September 11, there will be a doubleheader: the Minnesota Vikings at the Washington Redskins at 7 pm ET, followed by the San Diego Chargers at the Oakland Raiders at 10:15 pm ET.

Three games are scheduled to be played on Thanksgiving Day. In addition to the traditional annual Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys home games during that day (who will host the Miami Dolphins at 12:30 pm ET and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 4:15 pm ET, respectively), the Denver Broncos will travel to face the Kansas City Chiefs at 8 pm ET.

The season will conclude on New Year's Eve, December 31. Super Bowl XLI, the Super Bowl championship game for the 2006 season, will be held on February 4, 2007 at Dolphin Stadium in Miami Lakes, Florida, and the post-season will conclude with the Pro Bowl in Hawaii.

Based on the NFL's scheduling formula, the intraconference and interconference matchups for 2006 will be:

Intraconference

AFC East v AFC South

AFC North v AFC West

NFC East v NFC South

NFC North v NFC West

Interconference

AFC East v NFC North

AFC North v NFC South

AFC South v NFC East

AFC West v NFC West

2006 will be the first year that the NFL will use a "flexible-scheduling" system for the last seven weeks of the regular season. The system is designed so that the league has the flexibility in selecting games to air on Sunday night that will feature the current hottest, streaking teams. This system's primary purpose is to prevent games featuring losing teams from airing during primetime late in the season, while at the same time allowing surprise, playoff-potential teams a chance to play at night. During the previous 2005 season, a December 19 Monday Night game featured the 4-9 Baltimore Ravens versus the 3-10 Green Bay Packers, while hot, streaking teams such as the Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Jacksonville Jaguars had little or no primetime games.

Because Christmas Eve (December 24) falls on a Sunday during the 2006 season, the flexible-scheduling will actually occur in seven of the last eight weeks. Instead of a Sunday night game on Christmas Eve, two games will be held on Monday, Christmas Day: The Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas at 5 pm ET, and the New York Jets at Miami at 8:30 pm ET. Therefore, the first real test of the new flexible scheduling will come with the 2007 season, with the final seven weeks scheduled to begin on November 18 of that year.

Under the flexible-scheduling system, all Sunday games in the affected weeks will have the start time of 1pm ET/10am PT, except those played in the Pacific or Mountain Time zones who will have a start time of 4 pm ET/1pm PT (or 4:15 PM ET/1:15 PM PT if it is a doubleheader weekend). On the Tuesday 12 days before the games, the league will move one game to the primetime slot, and possibly move one or more 1 pm slotted games to the 4 pm slots. During the last week of the season, the league could re-schedule games as late as six days before the contests so that all of the television networks will be able to broadcast a game that has playoff implications.

The 2006 NFL football season is sure to be full of new records, surprising stories, and incredible sports gambling action.

Natalie Aranda writes on sports and entertainment. The 2006 NFL football season is sure to be full of new records, surprising stories, and incredible sports gambling action. As football fans across the US count down to the opening day of the 2006 NFL Regular Season Kickoff, BetUS.com Sportsbook has launched its 2006 NFL football betting portal for all football betting enthusiasts everywhere. Throughout the preseason and regular season you'll have the opportunity to extend your sports betting winnings and grab the excitement of another incredible football season.

St Louis Rams Still Winless in 2009

The St. Louis Rams are looking at another dreadful season in 09'. There are one of the worst teams in the NFL - just a few short years ago the Rams were one of the most exciting teams in the history of the league. An entire overhaul of the team will need to take place - besides running back Stephen Jackson - if the Rams every expect to be playoff contenders again.

The St. Louis fans are good fans who will support a team - they don't deserve the product that is being produced on the field. The Rams have one of worst offenses in the NFL - not much is expected fort the Rams in 09'. Their defense isn't much better, the Rams rank as one of the worst defense teams in the league and opponents on offense can do whatever they please.

It is doubtful the Rams will go winless like the Detroit Lions "accomplished" in 08' - the Rams are not looking at many wins either. It's hard to find bright spots with the Rams. The only player that the Rams can be proud is RB Stephen Jackson - Jackson has carried the Rams the last few seasons - a running back alone doesn't win football games.

The NFL has had fast turn arounds before - many feel this isn't possible with the Rams. The Dolphins in 07' went 1-15, 08' the Dolphins went 11-5. Whether that was a fluke or not the turn around was accomplished. The Rams must draft well in the 10' draft if they expect to a respectable team once the 10' season comes. When a team has so many problems, one, two, or even three high draft picks won't make the difference. The Rams fans hope the front office makes very smart decisions in the upcoming years so the Rams don't turn into the Detroit Lions of the NFC West.

Visit the St. Louis Rams forum and vent your frustrations, or play some pick 'em at RootZoo.

Simple NFL Systems #18 - Early Season Match-Ups and Pythagorean Win

Similar to the Playoffs, early season games need to be handicapped much differently than those played after around Week 3 of the regular season--when it comes to using situational methods.

One of the biggest challenges at this stage of the season comes from the lack of useful data from recently played contests.

Unfortunately, pre-season games have never been a good indicator of what lies in store for a team in the first few weeks of the regular season. The large number of players that see playing time in the pre-season who are eventually cut or relegated to 2nd or 3rd team status does not help, nor does the fact that marquee QB's and other important players often only take the field for a handful of plays in the earlier games, if at all.

All is not lost; however, as there are key stats from the previous season that can lend real insight into games played in the early part of the following year, and there is also the previous history between the 2 teams involved that one can consider (more on this later).

One key stat from the past season that works very well as a handicapping tool in the early part of the following one is Pythagorean Win Percentage.

Pythagorean Win Percentage (PWP) was first developed by sabermetrics-pioneer Bill James as a method of removing the effects of 'luck' from a baseball team's won/lost record by focusing solely on runs for and runs against. The formula actually works equally well for the National Football League after a few minor 'tweaks', the most significant of which entails using Points For and Against in its calculation as opposed to 'runs'.

By comparing a team's PWP with their actual winning percentage, it becomes easy to ascertain which teams have had an over-abundance of either good, or bad misfortune--knowledge which has obvious implications for those of us trying to handicap current games based on past performance.

PWP, as it applies to Major League Baseball, has seen a number of improvements since James first came up with the idea and more advanced formula's now consider not just runs themselves, but also the ratio of singles, doubles, homeruns etc. that went into producing these runs, along with alternate multipliers depending on the different ball-parks where the scoring occurred.

Some of these improvements do not apply so much to the game of North American football, where the field of play is obviously identical from stadium to stadium, and the original formula that James developed for MLB remains a simple, yet accurate method of calculating a team's winning percentage that is often more reliable than won/lost records alone.

The formula for calculating PWP for NFL teams is as follows:

Points For ^ 2.37 / (Points For ^ 2.37 + Points Against ^ 2.37)

An exponent of 2.37 has been found to provide the most accurate results for the NFL while 1.83 is the most commonly used exponent for MLB teams. This formula even works when applied to NBA teams, where an exponent of between 14 and 16 is prevalent.

In order to best explain exactly how this formula works, it's probably best to look at a couple of examples from the past season.

The New England Patriots are an example of a team who actually 'overachieved' in 2007, when their won/lost record of 16-0 is compared against their PWP.

Anyone who watched the Pats-Ravens game in Week 15 and to a lesser extent, their regular season finale against the NY Giants, would probably agree that New England could have easily ended the season at 15-1 or 14-2 and their PWP shows that either of these records would actually have been more indicative of their level of play in '07.

Based on their Points For of 589 and Points Against of 274, New England's PWP works out to 0.860 (589 ^ 2.37 / (589 ^ 2.37 + 274 ^ 2.37)).

Given their WP to PWP differential of +0.140 (1.000 - 0.860) it appears that New England was in fact, luckier than most teams in the league last year-an opinion that Ray Lewis and the rest of the Ravens would certainly not argue.

An example of a team that underachieved in 2007 would be the Philadelphia Eagles, who finished the year at 8-8, yet, had a PWP of 0.567 (336 ^ 2.37 / (336 ^ 2.37 + 300 ^ 2.37)), leading us to believe that they were perhaps more deserved of a 9-7 record.

So, how does a team's PWP from the previous season figure into the process of handicapping games early in the next one?

One interesting use for this stat involves teams that had a PWP (as long as this meeting occurred within the past 4 years). Teams in this situation are a dismal 33-60 ATS (35.5%) since 1994 in the first 2 weeks of the regular season immediately following.

As I mentioned near the top of this article, past history between the 2 teams in question is important early on in the season and in this case, teams with a weak PWP from the previous season that are also facing an opponent that may be seeking revenge for a relatively recent defeat, creates a potent combination that has spelled trouble versus the line over the past 14 years.

While a situation with a record of 33-60 ATS is profitable enough, there is one other Secondary condition concerning the past meeting between these 2 teams that when added, greatly reduces the number of games involved while maintaining a similar level of profit.

This condition concerns teams that not only won in the last meeting, but, did so in convincing fashion (at least offensively anyway).

When we only include teams that scored at least 30 points in this game, the record for this situation drops to a crushing 5-28 ATS (15.2%) for a tidy profit of $2,250.00 when wagering $110.00 to win back $100.00 against the team in question.

The final Secondary condition that I like to add for this trend involves something I touched on earlier, and that is, the comparison of a team's actual winning percentage with their Pythagorean winning percentage.

Teams that meet the criteria discussed so far that also had a SU winning percentage at least 0.100 points higher than their PWP last season have been a perfect 3-0 ATS, so, by eliminating teams that outperformed their PWP in the previous season, we are left with a trend that has been 2-28 ATS since 1994.

Here are all the details.

(Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative--weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 13 of my 2008 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)

System #18 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Game is being played in Week 1 or 2 of the regular season.
2) Last Seasons Pythagorean Win% Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Exclude Teams with a SU WP at least 0.100 points higher than their PWP LS.
2) Points For >= 30 in their Last Meeting (LM4).

System Stats
ASMR: +1.7
Home%: 62.5
Dog%: 56.3
TDIS%: 56.3
WT%: 68.8
SPR: +1.1
Top Teams: CIN(4); NO(4); ATL(2); BUF(2)

System Record
Overall (Since '94): 2-28 ATS
2007 Season: 0-1 ATS
2006 Season: 0-1 ATS
2005 Season: 0-4 ATS
2004 Season: 0-2 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.
2007 WK2--DET 20 MIN 17 (DET -3) P
2007 WK1--MIN 24 ATL 3 (MIN -3) W
2006 WK2--NO 34 GB 27 (NO -2) W

Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com

Simple NFL Systems - #65 & #90 - SOV and Revenge in the Playoffs

Seeing as we are less than 2 weeks removed from one of the more exciting post-seasons to come along in recent memory (congrats to the NY Giants), it seems like an opportune time to discuss a couple of different playoff systems that both found success in 2007, one with a 5-1 ATS record and the other with a perfect 3-0 mark against the number.

Handicapping the post-season effectively requires a different outlook than the regular season and while some of the trends that I use between September and December are valid in January as well, most of my post-season selections are based on roughly 6 different trends that are specific to the playoffs only, all of which have found great success in the past 14 years.

The 2 that will be the focus of this article are fairly simple in nature and with a small amount of work on your part, they can become valuable handicapping tools for you in the 2008 Playoffs.

The first one involves an interesting stat that I have found to be very effective in predicting spread winners in the playoffs: Strength of Victory (SOV).

SOV is essentially the 'half-brother' of Strength of Schedule (SOS). The only difference, is that, instead of totaling up the won/loss records of all opponents faced, we are only going to look at the won/loss record for the opponents that a team has defeated. This calculation will obviously take less effort for lousy teams (Miami's SOV of 0.31 from 2007 doesn't take long to calculate) and more time for some of the better teams in the league.

A good example from the 2007 season is Kansas City and their SOV of 0.47, which was achieved by defeating 4 opponents (Minnesota, San Diego, Cincinnati and Oakland) that finished the regular season with a combined record of 30-34.

The league average for SOV is usually only around 0.400 and Kansas City did manage to tie for second in this category, with Atlanta and New England (one of the few statistical area's where the '07 Chiefs were near the top of the league).

So, what does SOV have to do with successfully picking winners in the playoffs? It's simple really--since 1994, playoff teams that have a lower SOV than their opponent, are 88-57 (60.7%) ATS for a tidy profit of $2,530.00 ($110 wagered to win back $100).

There is only one more significant condition that needs to be added to this trend and that is: the team with the lower SOV must also have had a higher straight-up winning percentage in the previous season (LS WP).

Adding this 3rd and final condition creates a 40-6 ATS situation that was 5-1 in the '07 playoffs and has never been below the .500 mark versus the number in the past 14 years.

Interestingly enough, this situation has a fairly even split between playing on home teams and road teams as well as favourites and underdogs. Almost two-thirds of teams in the league have been involved since 1994.

The next Playoff system I would like to look at (#90) also relies on only 2 different conditions (in addition to the specification of looking at only Playoff games, of course). This trend has been almost perfect since 1994: 21-1 ATS, with it's only loss coming in the 2003 post-season, when it went 5-1.

It's success is based on teams that are looking for 'revenge' as a result of a SU LOSS in the last game played against their current opponent, either in the current season, or one of the previous 2 seasons. I should further clarify that the team in this situation must have also been a favourite in this previous game, making it an upset win for their current opponent.

Just a brief word about past meetings: When looking at these games, I basically break them into 2 different classifications: LM2 and LM4. This particular trend uses the LM2 classification (the last meeting occurred in the current, or last 2 seasons) while the LM4 type extends further back to include a previous meeting as far back as 4 seasons ago. Depending on the exact circumstance that is being addressed from a previous game, an LM4 classification will sometimes be more effective while in other cases, a game needs to be more recent and I therefore use the LM2 type.

I do analyze a total of 20 different stats from past meetings such as rushing and passing yardage, penalty yardage, time of possession and turnovers, etc. But, it's usually the final score itself that provides the most insight into who will cover in a current game.

Past meetings that end up as an 'upset' or that finish with a 4th Quarter Comeback or a Clutch Win are exactly the kind of games that leave one team or the other looking forward to the next meeting where things can be 'put right'.

And what better time of the year to exact some revenge than under the glare and spotlight of the NFL Playoffs? This is shown by the fact that since 1994, Playoff teams that lost SU as a favourite versus their current opponent in their last meeting (LM2 classification) are outstanding versus the line: 32-10 (76.2%) ATS for a profit of $2,100 (wagering $110 to win back $100 on each game).

For those that want to take things one step further: if we add the condition that this teams season over/under average (OV%) is at least 50% (meaning, they have gone over the number in at least half their games), the record for this situation becomes 21-1 (95.5%) ATS since 1994.

Here are all the details on both of these systems.

(Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative--weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)

System #65 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)

1) Playoff Game.

2) Opponent has a higher season Strength of Victory (SOV).

3) Last Seasons Winning Percentage (LS WP) greater than Opponent's LS WP.

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)

1) None.

System Stats

ASMR: -0.2

Home%: 53.2

Dog%: 38.3

TDIS%: 62.5

WT%: 100.0

SPR: -1.22

Top Teams: SEA(6); NE(5); PHI(5); DEN(4)

System Records

Overall (Since '94): 40-6 ATS

2007 Season: 5-1 ATS

2006 Season: 3-1 ATS

2005 Season: 4-1 ATS

2004 Season: 4-0 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.

2007 WK20--NE 21 SD 12 (SD +14) W

2007 WK19--SD 28 IND 24 (SD +9) W

2007 WK19--GB 42 SEA 20 (SEA +7) L

System #90 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)

1) Playoff Game.

2) Straight-up FAV loss versus this Opponent in Current or L2 Seasons (LM2).

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)

1) Season Over% (OV%) >= 50

System Stats

ASMR: -1.8

Home%: 34.8

Dog%: 52.2

TDIS%: 43.8

WT%: 100.0

SPR: -0.33

Top Teams: DEN(3); PIT(3); IND(2); JAC(2)

System Records

Overall (Since '94): 21-1 ATS

2007 Season: 3-0 ATS

2006 Season: 1-0 ATS

2005 Season: 1-0 ATS

2004 Season: 1-0 ATS

Last 3 Results. Pick in Brackets.

2007 WK20--NYG 23 GB 20 (NYG +7.5) W

2007 WK19--NE 31 JAC 20 (JAC +13) W

2007 WK18--JAC 31 PIT 29 (PIT +2.5) W

Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com

Watch the NCAA Tournament Online - Instant Online Access!

It is a great feeling to relax in your favorite chair and just sit back and watch the NCAA tournament. The bad thing, however, is that some of us don't have the pleasure of watching the NCAA tournament from the comfort of our home.

I am going to introduce to you a way that you can watch the NCAA tournament online and not lose a single play on any of the games that are shown. I found this great technology last year when I had to work all of the time during the NCAA tournament.

I was able to find a piece of software that allowed me to watch all of the games online while I was working on several projects at work. I did not have a strict boss, so I was allowed to watch the games online as I was doing my work.

You will need a couple of simple things that will allow you to do the same as I did last year to be able to watch the NCAA tournament online. The first thing is obvious, but you are going to need a computer. That is pretty much a given, but I needed to throw it out there anyway.

The next thing that you will need is an Internet connection. I would advise that it is a broadband connection via Cable, DSL, or other service. If you are not sure, it is easy to look at the back of your computer to see how you connect to the Internet. If you have a regular phone line attached to your computer and you hear a dialing sound when you connect, you do not have broadband. Anything other than the dial-up will work fine.

The only other thing that you will need is the software that will allow you to watch the NCAA tournament online. It is a piece of software that will interface you with thousands of TV stations online. You will get instant access to hundreds of sports stations that are going to be covering the NCAA tournament. You will also get access to hundreds of other TV and movie stations.

So, I want to go over really quick what you are going to need in order to watch the college basketball tournament online. First you need a computer that is connected to a broadband Internet connection. I use an old DSL line that I had installed over 4 years ago, and it works fine. The only other thing that you need is the software that will give you access to all of the sports and TV stations that you will ever need to watch the tournament online. There is a one-time fee of around $50 to get access, but there are no monthly charges and no hidden fees. Just a one-time payment of $50.

Get the software that you need to Watch the NCAA Tournament Online: Click Here!

Have a Great Time - Watch the NCAA Tournament Online

Game Copy Software Well Worth Investment

With amazing improvements in the arena of video game technology, new games and upgrades of old favorites are released every day. The video game choices are mind-boggling- seeming to span the market across culture, class, age, ethnicity and gender.

For example: males between the ages of 17 - 49 tend make mainly Xbox or PlayStation purchases because of the varied selection of sporting and fight games. While women within the same age bracket love the, virtual, mirth-filled worlds available through Wii video games.

After going to the expense of installing all this game equipment as part of a family room's entertainment décor, who wants to lose these games to careless damage, or have them stolen by dishonest service and delivery men, or even dishonest friends?

However uncomfortable these thoughts are, one must put the loss of these valuables into the perspective of harsh economic times. Funds that were available to purchase the previous original game may not be available again to replace it if it has been damaged or stolen.

It is therefore recommended that back-up copies be made of original games.

Due to globalization there has never been an easier time to gain computer and Internet access worldwide, and hence be able to buy game copy software online. All laptops and computers are now manufactured with copying capabilities, so it is easy to download game copy software without having to leave the home or office.

These software are necessary before any discs can be copied, because they are able to break the encryption stored on CD/DVD-ROM based games. The encryption is necessary to prevent illegal duplication of the video games.

Some web-based companies offer discounts and free trial periods to persons unwilling to spend on a product they have not already tried or even heard of before. However, if a person is ready to make an immediate purchase, the Easy Back-up Wizard is available at a cost of approximately $50.00US.

Once the software has been sourced and loaded on to the computer, the accompanying instructions can be followed to complete the process of backing-up the video game.

This is not an illegal process once the video game being copied was legitimately purchased, and will only be used privately. However it is right to be mindful of matters such as copyright infringement.

Back-up software will save owners of these unique video games money and stress in the long run. Now games can be left around the house for anyone to play. The only liability coming out of the destruction of one of the back-up game copies would be the cost of a blank disc-which is nominal.

If you want to copy video games and you are tired of the hassle, go to http://www.FreeDailyGaming.com

Most Memorable Super Bowl 2010 Moments

Well, if you love the game of football, then you probably enjoyed this year's outstanding Super Bowl game that was so awesome to watch. This was the third year in a row that this game was truly worth watching, unlike the games from the years prior to then.

Now, the Indianapolis Colts were heavily favored to come away with the victory at the Super Bowl, but, much to everyone's surprise, the New Orleans Saints won instead. This was largely due to the fantastic way that Drew Brees and the rest of the Saint's offense performed in the game; however, their defense did equally as well when dealing with the Colt's quarterback, Peyton Manning.

So, let's discuss down some of the highlights of Super Bowl XLIV. Perhaps you didn't get to see the game; if that is the case, then these are the things that you would want to know about.

He started off a little shaky, but once that passed, Drew Brees had an almost perfect game. He began it by only getting three completions from the first seven attempts, but then he went on to complete 29 out of the next 32 attempts. He finished the game with an impressive total of 32 completions out of 39 attempts with 288 yards, no turnovers and 2 touchdown passes.

These statistics are truly superb and, of course, Brees received the award for giving such an efficient performance as a quarterback in this Super Bowl.

Let's not take anything away from Garrett Hartley, the Saint's young kicker. He attempted and made all three of his field goals from 44, 46 and 47 yards. These were vital in helping them to win, considering that they were losing to the Colts whenever he made two of them.

Last but not least, Peyton Manning, the quarterback for the Colts, sure stirred up a lot of controversy when the game was over. He quickly left the field without offering a handshake or even saying congratulations to any of the players on the Saints team.

The custom is that the players on the losing team will congratulate the players on the winning team, so what Manning did is being called poor sportsmanship by a lot of people. To the contrary, Drew Brees stated that he does not hold anything against Manning because he knows how that frustration feels.

There's no better way to watch a big game like the Super Bowl on a nice HD television set. If you own a flat screen TV, you'd probably benefit from a wall bracket. Learn more about this device at http://wallbracket.org for some great information that may be useful to you.

2009 Baltimore Ravens NFL Picks Preview

The Baltimore Ravens have a lot to be excited about in 2009. If you have been browsing around the internet at NFL betting picks, you will see the Ravens are found among the contenders in the league. Most people believe that they are a playoff team and some consider them Super Bowl contenders. Is there anything to all of the hype? Let's look at what the off-season brought the Baltimore Ravens.

The Good News: The good news is that they were a good team last year with a rookie quarterback. They didn't lose too much in the off-season and the rookie quarterback isn't a rookie quarterback anymore. Joe Flacco has a season of starts under his belt including a couple of playoff games. Last year he went through training camp not knowing whether he would be the starter. He was in a battle with Troy Smith and Kyle Boller. Now he knows he's the man and everyone believes in him. Last year, he was more of a caretaker on a good team. He had the great defense to bail him out if he needed help. This year, they will open up the playbook a little more and let him show off his gun. They also added a Pro Bowl caliber center in Matt Birk to upgrade their protection for him. It's all about the "Joe Flacco Show" in Baltimore.

The Bad News: The bad news is the loss of a few key ingredients to last years team. One of the leaders on the defense, Bart Scott, bolted to the Jets in the opening minutes of free agency. While the Ravens still have plenty of playmakers on defense, Scott was an important piece of the machine. In addition to Scott, the defense lost its coordinator in Rex Ryan. Ryan was the brains behind the defensive juggernaut in Baltimore and he will be sorely missed. Another question mark hangs over the situation with Derrick Mason. The leading receiver for the Ravens the last few years has said he is retiring. Many believe it's simply a power play in his negotiation for a new contract. However, the possibility remains that he will not be a Raven this year. Another concern for many is that Joe Flacco was a little underwhelming at times last season. He managed to win most of his games, but most teams didn't really fear the aerial game as much with him behind the wheel. They tended to grind it out on the ground most of the time with a few passes here and there. This isn't what a lot of people expect out of a first round pick at quarterback.

Outlook: The Ravens have a lot of great players and a good young coach to keep the ship heading in the right direction again this season. They have question marks on both sides of the ball, but then again, who doesn't? They could use an upgrade on the offensive side of the ball, but overall, they're solid. If you're looking for free NFL picks, I would put my money on the Ravens to make the playoffs again. They probably won't win the Super Bowl, but they'll be in the hunt.

Vernon Croy is the Owner/CEO of VernonCroy.com and he is one of the most reputable and respected professional sports handicappers in the world. Vernon Croy has won numerous handicapping awards and he is ranked as one of the top 10 handicappers in the world 100% documented by the Professional Handicappers League.

NFL Season Predictions Part 1: NFC North

As training camp has emerged creating a vast set of emotions of both hope for rookies and redundant routines for veterans, it is never to early to began the rampant speculations surrounding the issue of how the teams will look in the standings come season end. Through my knowledge of the sport and teams, as well as careful analysis of recent off-season acquisitions and losses, I have come up with a forecast of how I expect each team to finish in its respective division. This week I will tackle the NFC North with the impression that it is the most volatile division as truthfully any of the four teams have a shot at making the playoffs.

Beginning with last year's division champ, the Chicago Bears, I feel that the team's situation last season was a fluke. You may argue that the defense is second to none and with a [hopefully] full year of Rex Grossman the Bears will be in contention again to not only win the division but contend for the Lombardi Trophy. While this may be the case I am a strong advocate of momentum and looking at the Bear's playoff game last January I believe the defense will struggle occasionally such as during that game and cause this team to lose more games then win. Already problems off the field with players such as Roy Manning, I consider that situations such as these will cause distractions for a team that has a coach who can be argued as soft in some cases. Also, since Chicago did win the division the Bear's schedule will be harder as well, having to play both the Giants and Panthers: potential Super bowl contenders. Playing also the NFC West with teams that rely on high offensive power, I can see some of that offense beating up on the Bear's defense causing a few losses there as well. Overall while I do not see the Bears completely falling in the NFC North I do see them faltering some which puts them in jeopardy of missing the playoffs.

Now with Mike Tice, Culpepper, and hopefully the reminiscences of the Love Boat scandal gone the Minnesota Vikings hope to make a serious run back to the playoffs. The team did add some quality in terms of the offensive line with Steve Hutchinson, but the big key to look at here is the Vikings have quite a problem surrounding the rest of the offense. With the players of Brad Johnson, Troy Williamson, and Chester Taylor replacing the likes of Daunte Culpepper, Nate Burleson, and Michael Bennet, there is little hope that a team of this caliber can reach the playoffs when it already missed the playoffs last year with these players and barely made it two years ago with a healthy Culpepper and Moss. You can argue that a change of direction is good for the team and to a certain extent it is in the form of chemistry, but to honestly say that the change will dramatically help the team in terms of wins and losses is a little to eager. Minnesota will have a sub .500 record this season.

Going from Minnesota to Detroit, I see a decent difference in the style of play which will ultimately lead to a similar result. While Minnesota can be commended on its decent defense, Detroit can be applauded for its stellar offense. With its three wide receivers taken in the first round for three continuous years along with a running back in Kevin Jones who has seemed to have solidified his status in the NFL, the Lions look like it might make a run for the division. I would even go to say that brining in Jon Kita was an excellent move as he is underrated especially juxtaposed to Joey Harrington. However, the defense is still shaky and calls for concern especially when a new head coach is brought in to help mold the situation and bring cohesion potentially costing a few games. Even though the Lions were third last year, Detroit is still going to have to face teams of Atlanta and Dallas who will both be in contention with their respective strong offensive support. Sad to say it will be another tough season for Lion fans.

Now you may be saying to yourself that this guy has been negative for 3 of 4 of the teams in the NFC North and must be expecting the Packers to have a huge year. If you were ascertaining this thought, kudos to you. For analyzing the Packers it is important that you look at its schedule. The Packers have six games against the Lions, Vikings, and Bears who I believe are all mediocre (see above). The Packers also play the AFC East division which I believe is also very weak allowing them to go 3-1 potentially losing only to the Patriots. Next the Packers play the Saints and Eagles, and while both have chances of contending I see Green Bay as the stronger team in both matches. Now the hardest part of the Packer's schedule is facing the NFC West. Unfortunately the Packers got the division when 3 out of the 4 teams are possible contenders. I say Green Bay will go 2-2 beating the Cardinals and 49ers allowing for an overall 12-4 record. Now as for the team itself I believe Green Bay made good upgrades during the off-season which along with the easy schedule will allow Green Bay to win the division. While the Packers did lose Jim Bates and Mike Sherman, I do believe the Packers' player changes are efficient along with the additional of Mike McCarthy allowing for an even better season defensively. Now assuming all of the core players stay injury free, players like Carroll will have a solid season as more pressure is off them contributing for a better performance. The Packer's CBs, and LBs are pretty good with the addition of Woodson, Hawk, and Taylor, and I think both Collins and Manuel are going to have solid seasons as well with the defensive line. In terms of offense, I agree there are weak spots in relation to the offensive line, but I have faith in the receivers (Cory Rogers will surprise people), and as long as Favre does not have too many goof ups the Packers will be in contention to at least win the division.

Final Season Standings (*demonstrates making the playoffs):

1.*Green Bay: 12-4

2.Chicago: 7-9

3.Minnesota: 6-10

4.Detroit: 4-12

Dennis Biray presents advice on all kinds of topics ranging from finance and investing to fitness to sports. For more information email him at dbiray@gmail.com, or to view other articles written by him visit http://www.biraynetworks.co.nr/.

The 12 Decisive Questions For Superbowl 44 and American Football Fans

1. Who will emerge from wild-card weekend as the 2010 version of the New York Giants 2007, who won everything as a fifth seed; or the sixth seed from 2005, the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl XL champion? You can consider the Green Bay Packers. After a gap of one-year from the playoff, coach Mike McCarthy's team is making its best play since the loss last 8 November that was very embarrassing to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who were then-winless, having won seven of its last eight. Quarter back Aaron Rodgers is playing a good game in the league right now; this was said by former Ravens coach Brian Billick.

The Dom Capers, 3-4 defense has a made a league-high 30 interceptions. Linebacker Rodgers has shown toughness and became an inspiration to teammates in shaking off a league-worst 50 sacks and became the first quarterback in the history of the league to throw for 4,000 yards his first two seasons as a starter. Aaron Rodgers is a phenomenal player, says Jim Miller from Sirius NFL Radio, a former quarterback. The Packers seem to have found their game with the help of Ryan Grant. But Mason Crosby a kicker is 27-for-36, translating 75% of his field goals and the postseason games can be reduced to a field goal, said Miller.

2. Can the Baltimore Ravens who are sixth-seeded, overcome a lot of injury from its secondary and with destructive tendencies as the second team with the most penalties? Cam Cameron Offensive coordinator has created a balanced, ninth-ranked scoring offense that runs Ray Rice running back through, who has 2,041 yards from disputes and a team-best 78 receptions. Miller said that he like this Ravens team all. Now, they have started to focus on running the football than earlier in the year. There are some issues regarding the secondary that lost Lardarius Webb and Fabian Washington. Now, they don't have the ability to prevail over their mistakes like they could then. Before, they were able to impose their will when they failed with the lack of steady offense. Now after making mistakes, they cannot overcome them.

3. Can the Philadelphia Eagles who are sixth-seeded, survive the loss of center Jamaal Jackson to a knee injury on Week 16? Coach Andy Reid is a former offensive lineman from Brigham Young University knows that postseason runs start up front. Nick Cole a right guard replaced Jackson, with Max Jean-Gilles stepping in for Cole. Can the Eagles finally win that hard to get Super Bowl with the most dangerous weapons of McNabb's career? It will be hard because he is a great player and a big guy that can restore the line of scrimmage, says Miller. Jamaal Jackson is a nasty player. Losing the key block in the center position is a very big loss.

4. Is it the same New York Jets? No. The same old Jets could have missed the playoffs in spite of the late-season gifts from the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals, who substituted their starters to rest while the Jets make the most of a win scenario with back-to-back victories. You can dismiss them as lucky at your own risk. Rex Ryan made an unpredictable overload blitzing scheme that was backed by the Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis' shut-down is allowing a league-best 14.8 points a game. The Jets made a league-best rushing attack averaging 172.2 yards.

Ryan said the Jets should be favored to win Super Bowl, their weakness? Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. After starting with a 3-0, in the April draft he was the fifth over all selection, he hit the rookie wall, and forgot to slide. He's 0-5 and he throws more than one interception. Whether they were lucky into the playoffs with Indianapolis pulling out their starters, the Jets are definitely good enough, says Miller. They have great defense and run the football. But the immaturity in their quarterback spot could cost them the game.

5. With Chris "Beanie" Wells the rookie averaging 4.5 yards rushing, can the Arizona Cardinals who are more balanced finish what they have not done in the final minutes of Super Bowl XLIII versus the Steelers? These Cardinals are now even better than the previous heavy team that came within a last-minute Ben Roethlisberger pass to Santonio Holmes touchdown pass of winning their first Super Bowl. Miller asks what quarterback has been better in postseason play than Kurt Warner? Now, they are a more well-rounded football team. But what about Kurt Warner? If he is hot, they are a sure winner, but if he is off in any of the game, then the team will lose. In four of their five losses where Warner has played, he has thrown 11 out of 14 interceptions.

6. Can the Bengals cope up with the scoreboard? Marvin Lewis the coach of the Bengals has been steady in guiding the tea, through two tragic losses, the sudden, October death of Vikki Zimmer, wife of Mike Zimmer defensive coordinator, and the tragic Dec. 17 death of Chris Henry wide receiver. But a 22nd-ranked scoring offense that is run-oriented is least potent among the playoff field. Take away Chad Ochocinco the receiver and Palmer has no other big-play options, as his one 300-yard passing game reflects. If they are two touchdowns down, can they catch-up? ask Miller. They need the game to be close where it's only a touchdown or a field goal. If it boils down to a shootout, the Cincinnati Bengals can't compete.

Continuation to the Super Bowl 44 Q & A. 7. Can the New England Patriots run the game as a wild card, with the distinction to the victorious favorite that lost its flawless dream season in Super Bowl XLII? Just when they thought that they have everything under control, the Patriots lost their very strong offensive heart and soul, when Wes Welker their slot receiver and his league-leading 123 receptions, got a serious knee injury on Week 17. A scoring defense on the fifth-rank allowed 17.8 points and the game has clamped down. Every one is still pointing at their defense. Is the pass rush still there for team New England? Ask Miller. They have shown the capability for the past couple of weeks to pressure the quarterback. It is a team that is starting to get its composure back together again.

8. Is Tony Romo prepared to take the Cowboys for the first time to a Super Bowl since 1996? Romo was able to remove his December mischief goblin, and came out as a poised decision-maker and clutch winner with the Cowboys' 24-17, Week 15 victory against the New Orleans who were then unbeaten inside the Superdome. As Trent Dilfer ESPN analyst notes, Romo is making confident pre-snap reads and taking advantage of his group of running backs Felix Jones, Marion Barber and Tashard Choice to set up play-action strikes to Jason Witten, Miles Austin, Patrick Crayton and Sam Hurd. Their wild-card rematch against NFC East rival Philadelphia is Romo's opportunity to achieve deliverance for his 0-2 playoff record. They are already starting to play like a Super Bowl team, said Miller. Because of the victory over New Orleans, they have already set a standard. If they can continue with it into the playoffs, they will be a tough team to beat.

9. Can Brett Favre lead the Vikings to that Lombardi Trophy he came off his Mississippi tractor to win? Moon said he really think they have as good shot as any team to win in the Super Bowl. They can run the ball on offense and they can also stop the run on defense as good if not better than anybody. And they have Brett Favre a quarterback who has a great deal, if not more, playoff experience than anybody. Those things are really a plus factor for them. What happened, why did they loose two of their last three? They have transferred into Brett Favre's team, instead of Adrian Peterson's team; this is what analyst Greg Cosell of the NFL Films says. Peterson has two times as many lost fumbles as 100-yard rushing games.

10. Are the San Diego Chargers this season's 2006 Colts - a not so lucky team hardened by harsh playoff frustration (2007 AFC Championship Game loss) to finish on the brink of celebrating a Super Bowl 44 breakthrough? The guys have been around for a while and have suffered a lot of heartaches and lots of disappointments, A.J. Smith Chargers general manager says. Going to the playoffs all the time pays extra. The longer time you're in the tournament, the more the tremendous pressure of trying to get to the Super Bowl. We already know the experienced. Rivers is playing at his best football of his career at the proper time. Can this be his time to win a Super Bowl title and follow 2004 first-round draft classmates Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger? He also wants to win it, Smith says of QB Philip Rivers. With a bit of luck, that will happen for all of us.

LaDainian Tomlinson Running back is in good health for the first time after his injuries limited him for the past two postseasons. And he's behind the game's best line, Madden said, who is keep an eye on the league closely in retreat and trying to bring acknowledgment to the game's best offensive lines in a crusade with Prilosec. I will tell you that the offensive line has gotten better, said Madden.

11. Can coach Sean Payton and Drew Brees get a Lombardi Trophy for the Hurricane Katrina-ravaged Gulf Coast region they recognize as their calling?
Can they ignite their offense after hitting the postseason in a three-game tailspin?
Drew Brees and the Saints have a remarkable offense, Greg Cosell NFL Films analyst says. No one does it better than Sean Payton in terms of formations and personnel. A concern is about their 26th-ranked pass defense. They found out that Malcolm Jenkins cannot play corner.

12. Can Peyton Manning & the team justify Colts coach Jim Caldwell's decision to pull out his starters in Week 16 versus the Jets, which passed a possible 19-0 in favor of preserving a Super Bowl 44 title run? Even if there is a rash of injuries, the Colts hold the seventh ranked scoring defense. They allow 19.2 points a game, and their sixth ranked offense has an average of 26 points. They won most games this decade with 115. They have a Super Bowl title to show for that success, compared with the Patriots three and the Steelers two during that span. This shows how great the competition will be in the next Super Bowl 44.

SuperbowlAddict.com is dedicated to bringing you the latest news on American Football and Superbowl. Discover Superbowl-44 Saints Colts game time and analysis on http://superbowladdict.com/super-bowl-44-matchups-to-root-for/.

Are the Eagles a Playoff Caliber Team?

We all know the Eagles have played terrible football lately. However, despite their terrible play, they still stand in fifth place in the NFC. There are three other teams (Giants, Packers, Falcons) with the same 5-4 record, but the Eagles have the best conference record of the group. So as it stands now the Eagles have a good enough record to make the playoffs, but the question is are they really a playoff caliber team?

The first answer that comes to mind is an obvious no. This may have to do with the sour mood I'm in due to their play as of late, or it might just be the truth. With the way this team has performed as of late, it's hard to see them beating any team that is able to make the playoffs. The most frustrating thing though, is that we know the Eagles can be much, much better than they have been. Looking at the offensive weapons they have, this team should be able to put up 30+ points in a game without thinking twice. They haven't been doing this and maybe it's the coaching staffs fault, but maybe it's just as much the players fault as well.

So is this a playoff caliber team? Right now, no. However, I think they have the tools to be one and if they can put all that together throughout the next month and a half, I think they can definitely be a playoff team. Let's take a look at some of the other playoff teams as it stands now.

Saints - They really handed it to us in our Week Two matchup. The Eagles were without Donovan McNabb and maybe that would have made some sort of difference. I doubt it as the defense played terribly that game. Despite that game, the Saints have struggled to date, barely beating a horrible Rams team this weekend. They are undefeated but if you heard Drew Brees this week, they aren't playing like a team that deserves to be undefeated.

Vikings - This is a team we took down in the playoffs last year. Now they have what seems to be their missing link in Brett Favre. They're in good position at 8-1 but Favre is known for his late season collapses. Only time can tell if they're as good as everyone thinks they are.

Cowboys - A team we should have beat. I still don't think they're that good but until we beat them, it's not very fair to say that.

Cardinals - They are capable of good things but I think they only make the playoffs because of how bad their division is. We are talking about the defending NFC Champions here so I guess we know they have what it takes to be solid come January. However, this is a team I wouldn't mind getting some revenge on.

That covers the four teams currently standing in front of us. We see two of the three teams that are tied with us later this year (Giants, Falcons) so we really do control our own destiny. I am very upset with this team as it stands right now; however, they do have time to make it up to me.

http://BirdsFan.com - A Philadelphia Eagles blog.

St Steven Done In The Dome

It is technically accurate to say the Steelers would benefit from out-ramming the Rams, but not to say they need to "out-Ram" them to win. That's enough of that.

Will the Steelers be able to contain, "Saint" Steven Jackson?

The Steelers need to take advantage of St. Louis' banged up offensive line, if there was ever a remedy for a defense having trouble getting off of blocks and getting to the quarterback, it's playing the Steelers, I mean the Rams, sorry. Lamar Woodley will play in place of the injured Clark Haggans. Let's hope the rookie can add some energy and intensity to the lethargic defense. Tyrone Carter is playing for Anthony Smith who has been benched after getting beat deep several times in the last two games. Carter should help sure up the pass defense, normally Polamalu's backup at strong safety, Carter has played free safety with Minnesota. I expect him to play a solid if unspectacular game, he's not the risk taker Smith is which makes him a good compliment to the aggressive.

I am certain ANthony Smith will be make a sweet tackle on special teams and break into a frenzied, chest-thumping celebration, possibly drawing a penalty.

A win tonight would clinch a playoff spot for Pittsburgh if either Cleveland or Tennessee lose.

There is a tangible sense of urgency for the Steelers going into the game tonight. It's disappointing that Pittsburgh has let things slide so far since beating the Browns-Reprise for the second time this season to take a three game lead on Cleveland.

The 3rd seed in the AFC appeared to be locked up when the Steelers held a 9-3 record and it's as if the team relaxed. St Louis' defense is spotty, their quarterback is injury prone and the Rams have only won 3 games this season. However, the offense of Jackson, Bruce, Holt, and Bulger has big play capability, and the Steelers defense needs to reestablish itself as a unit that can tackle. The Rams offense is the last big test of the regular season, aside from stopping Willis Magahee in Baltimore. If the defense has a chance to right itself, stopping the Rams tonight is a big the first step, the way the D responds to being pounded on last week will be indicative of how the rest of the season goes, and how long the team will last in the hopefully forthcoming post-season. The Rams will run Steven Jackson right over Aaron Smith's replacement. Someone needs to tackle him, or ram him backwards and into the ground. When the Steelers start bringing an extra guy into the box, the Rams will try to throw. It's fortunate for Pittsburgh that the Ram's line is in shambles.

The Rams will blitz. Will the Steelers line block? Where has the screen pass gone? Throw it to Heath Miller and Parker out of the backfield to counter the blitz.

Lost in the carnage of Fred Taylor's snow plow game last week was Ben Roethlisberger's record setting performance, Roethlisberger, who was recently elected to his first Pro Bowl, has set the Steelers single season record for TD passes with 29.

Check out any of the various media outlets for Roethlisberger's response when asked about the record and compare them to Hines Ward's self indulgent rant when he responded to questions about what it meant to him to break Stallworth's TD reception record. Ward talks about humility, Roethlisberger is humble.

How lucky are the Steelers and we as Steelers fans, to have a quarterback like Roethlisberger playing for Pittsburgh. In four years he has become the youngest QB to win a Super Bowl, gone undefeated as a starter in his first regular season, and set the franchise's single season TD record, he has twice tied the team record for consecutive completions with 15. He threw 3 td's last week with a shoulder injury which limited him to one day of practice in the week prior to the game. Remember when Steelers fans were complaining about the team taking Plax instead of Chad Pennington? Seems like eons ago.

I can see this turning into a shoot-out in the dome.

I'll predict the same final as the Steelers Rams matchup in Super Bowl XIV

Steelers 31, Rams 19

Blogger at the ultimate Pittsburgh Steeler's fansite at http://www.SteelerManiacs.com

College Football

College football is getting to be as popular as professional football. In some areas of the country, college football is a lot more popular than NFL football. In Nebraska for example, Memorial stadium in Lincoln becomes the state's third largest city on home football game days. The stadium becomes a sea of red as fans dress in the team colors in support of the Cornhuskers.

Almost as popular as discussing the games themselves is discussing the ranking systems. The BCS ranking system is used to determine which two teams will play for the National Championship each year. Data that is fed into several computers along with the USA Today poll (also called the Coaches poll) and the Harris poll are used to determine the BCS ratings each week. The first BCS poll each year is published around mid-October even though college football season starts in either late August or early September.

The AP poll and the USA Today polls are the most common polls used by the general public. There are several other polls. ESPN has a Power Sixteen poll. Sports Illustrated publishes a poll and so do CBS's Sportsline and Athlon to name a few others.

The BCS ranking system has come under a lot of criticism. Almost every college football fan has an opinion about it, usually a strong opinion. Many people do not like the BCS ranking system because they think there should be a playoff to decide which teams will play for the National Championship instead of computers deciding who will play.

Although the majority of college football fans are in favor of a playoff, the majority of University presidents are against it because they feel it would make the football season too long and would affect academics.

College football has been around a long time. The first intercollegiate college football game was played on November 6, 1869. The game was between Princeton and Rutgers University. The score of the game was 6-4. Rutgers won.

The game played that day was much different than college football as we know it today. During that first game each team had 25 players. The rules of the game were more similar to rugby than to modern day football. The rules for that day's game were adopted from the rules of the London Football Association. Every time one of the teams scored that day it counted as a game. The contest ended after there were ten "games" or ten scores. Whoever scored the most times won the match. That is why there is the odd-looking score of 6-4 for that first game.

The game of football evolved over time. In 1875 the round ball that had been used the first six years of play was replaced with an egg-shaped ball. In 1876 a crossbar was added to the goal posts. The height of that crossbar was 10 feet - the same height it is today. In 1876 the large playing field was changed also. It was made smaller - a size that is close to the size of today's playing field.

In the 1880's the game started to resemble football as we know it today. The rules that were similar to rugby rules were changed. Instead of 25 players for each team being allowed on the field at one time, it was changed to 11 players. More rules were changed and added over time, many of those because of serious injuries and deaths of players. By the late 1800's some safety equipment was part of the player's uniforms.

Early football was a vicious game. By the late 1800's the public started to speak out strongly against the game. In the early 1900's Columbia, which had been one of the early teams to join the sport, decided to ban football because it was too dangerous. Even President Theodore Roosevelt spoke out to say that changes needed to be made to the game.

More changes in rules and safety equipment were implemented. In 1910, an association was formed to govern collegiate football. That body is known today as the NCAA (National Collegiate Athletic Association). The NCAA is responsible for the rules and regulations of college football and is also charged with making sure the member teams of the NCAA follow those rules and regulations.

Changes in the rules, how the game was scored, and in the ball itself in the 1930's helped the game gain popularity.

Today, over 135 years after the first intercollegiate college football game was played, there are over 600 collegiate football teams in the United States. And, yearly attendance at those games is in the tens of millions.

Dorrie Ruplinger is the publisher of [http://www.ireallylovefootball.com] which provides information and resources about college football.

Cowboy Football - Deshawn Jackson Tweet This!

On Saturday Night January 9, 2010 Cowboy Football took a major leap forward. The first playoff victory for the Dallas Cowboys since 1996. 12 years in the waiting. The Philadelphia Eagles took their second straight loss at the hands of their NFC east rivals. Much was said about Tony Romo and his inability to win a playoff game, those comments disappeared into the toasty climate that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has provided with his 1.5 billion dollar stadium for America's team.

Much was said about the comments that the Philadelphia Eagles made publicly trying to downplay their shut-out loss six days ago. The importance of the game last week was down played as well, to Andy Reid's credit, not by him. Many will speculate that Donovan McNabb should not have a chance to quarterback this club next year, with his contract guaranteed through 2010, I do not see many other choices. Wide receiver, Deshawn Jackson was running his mouth through his writing on twitter, yet another avenue for players to reach fans, and in the process put their feet (both of them) in their mouths. Jackson did just that. Jackson said that Cowboy football, corner backs included could not cover him. I guess it is not a good idea to upset players, when you have not had too much success against them to start off with.

Jackson did just that. The Philadelphia Eagles spiraled out of control on the field, and when DeMarcus Ware slapped the ball out of the grip of McNabb's hand last night, the ball and the Eagle's season went to the ground and out the window. The Dallas Cowboys are off to Minnesota for Sunday's game next week. I cannot sit here and write like Jackson did, truthfully I do not know enough about the Vikings to do that. What I do know is the Cowboy Football is peaking right, regardless of the opponent. Romo keep your magic working, Defense keep your philosophy - "See someone, hit someone". The game will take care of itself. For Deshawn Jackson, tweet this!

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NFL Week 9 Point Spread Picks And Best Bets

SUNDAY AFTERNOON 1:00 PM ET

1. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-3.5) VS. Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are a different team with Kurt Warner at QB and they have a potentially explosive offense that can put up points in bunches. Of course the key is to keep Warner upright which has been somewhat of a challenge this season but he is ready to go for this one. The Buc's are coming off a demoralizing loss at home against the Jaguars and will be looking to right the ship before the season begins to spiral out of control. To lose to a backup QB like Quinn Gray could have a lasting impact on their psyches however and they might play tight so as not to make the mistakes they did last week which destroyed their chances. The Buc's simply can't score enough to justify giving 3.5 to anyone. Throw in the fact the better-than-average Cardinal offense is getting a head start makes them that much of a better play. The Pick: Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)

2. ATLANTA FALCONS (-3.5) VS. San Francisco 49ers: In a battle of two terrible offensive teams, the extra half point tilts this one in the 49ers' advantage. San Francisco qualifies in a very positive 81-54-1 ATS game scenario that plays on teams that have been especially bad on offense in recent weeks. Basically the belief is that the 'Niners have hit rock bottom on offense and that they will be able to get back on track against a poor Falcons defense. The 49ers have a big advantage in the run game with Frank Gore and the passing attack should get itself going with QB Alex Smith getting more comfortable after coming back from injury. The ATS trend and the player personnel both favor the 49ers and it wouldn't be a surprise if they even won here. THE PICK: 49ers (+3.5)

3. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3.5) VS. Jacksonville Jaguars: ********THIS GAME IS ONE OF OUR BEST BETS FOR THE WEEK.

4. TENNESSEE TITANS (-4.5) VS. Carolina Panthers: WE HAVE A STRONG OPINION ON THIS GAME.

5. Cincinnati Bengals (-.5) VS. BUFFALO BILLS: WE HAVE A STRONG OPINION ON THIS GAME.

6. Washington Redskins (-3.5) VS. NEW YORK JETS: The Jets will turn to Kellen Clemens this week in the hopes of sparking the team. That certainly could do the trick for the Jets here but it also could go the other way as this might signal that the white flag has been raised and that the team is playing for next year. A major letdown could then be at hand and things could get ugly against a still motivated, hard-hitting Redskins squad. Surely the 'Skins went back to the drawing board after last week's embarrassment against the Patriots but the fact of the matter is that this team still can't score. The Jets could have trouble scoring also as star WR Laverneaous Coles is likely to miss this game with a concussion. Either way this game has too many question marks to touch. THE PICK: PASS

7. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-2.5) VS. Green Bay Packers: The Packers are in a bad spot here as they are coming off a short week after playing a draining game in Denver on MNF. Green Bay won that game in OT and now they have to go out on the road again to take on the Chiefs in Arrowhead. Kansas City has played much better than anyone could have expected as they have won three in a row and are a strong factor in the AFC West race. The Packers have gone only 1-7 in their last eight in Kansas City and they should have trouble getting up for a second straight road game in a very hostile environment. THE PICK: Kansas City Chiefs (-2)

8. San Diego Chargers (-7.5) VS. Minnesota Vikings: WE HAVE A STRONG OPINION ON THIS GAME.

9. DETROIT LIONS (-3.5) VS. Denver Broncos: The Lions are actually in the playoff hunt this season and their only worry in the weak NFC North right now are the Packers. The Lions are fresh off a road win over the Bears where the defense stepped up and intercepted QB Brian Griese four times. The Broncos on the other hand come off a terrible loss at home on MNF against the Packers in a game they should have won. Awful clock management and play calling by coach Mike Shannahan did them in and so they now must try and save their season on the road. The Broncos match up well with the Lions in that their great secondary led by Pro Bowl CB Champ Bailey should limit the effectiveness o the Detroit passing attack. This game will be won by running the football which both teams do rather evenly. There are scenarios that favor both sides in this game and there is much too uncertainty to make this a worthwhile pick. THE PICK: PASS

SUNDAY AFTERNOON 4:00 PM ET

10. CLEVELAND BROWNS (-1.5) VS. Seattle Seahawks: WE HAVE A STRONG OPINION ON THIS GAME.
11. New England Patriots (-4.5) VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: *******THIS GAME IS ONE OF OUR BEST BETS FOR THE WEEK.

12. OAKLAND RAIDERS (-2.5) VS. Houston Texans: **************THIS GAME IS ONE OF OUR BEST BETS FOR THE WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT 8:30 PM ET

13. Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) VS. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: ******THIS GAME IS ONE OF OUR BEST BETS FOR THE WEEK.

MONDAY NIGHT 8:30 PM ET

14. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-9.5) VS. Baltimore Ravens: ******THIS GAME IS ONE OF OUR BEST BETS FOR THE WEEK. CLICK ON THE LINK ABOVE TO PURCHASE.

Cofounder of http://www.yourwinningpicks.com/ in our tenth year of supplying sports handicapping and fantasy sports information.

Buying Blank T Shirts at Wholesale - Finding Apparel Cheap to Resell at Auction Sites

There are many events throughout the year when buying blank t shirts at wholesale can come in handy. Many organizations or clubs have limited funds set aside for the purchase of fundraising supplies, many schools and churches allocate a small portion of the budget for the purchase of such items. Finding ways to stretch the dollar can benefit all involved.

Many more people than ever are buying blank t shirts at wholesale because of the tough economic times we are in. Local boy and girl scouts purchase blank t shirts for den projects, local VFW and American Legions buy them at wholesale for their pig roasts and bike runs. Even families having an upcoming family reunion  buy their tees at wholesale because they know how important it is to have every dollar they can. Stop spending top dollar on your blank t shirts and do like the others are to save money.

Online bulk retailers offer the consumer opportunities like never before. In the past a buyer needed to have a special account, reach a quota each month in purchases to achieve the wholesale pricing bracket. But now, almost anyone can go online, register in a minute at a site, and grab small quantities to large bulk lots at wholesale. Take advantage like the others have been for years, grab all your apparel and crafting needs at one online retailer. You can easily do this in minutes, and besides the money you're saving, think of all the free time you just found, think of the gas money you just saved and think of the the possibilities down the road that this small change will bring.

You can easily over the course of a year, save hundreds of dollars, hours of your time, gallons of gas, and piece of mind buying blank t shirts at wholesale from an online bulk retailer. The time is now to go green, you can keep your vehicle off the road, and keep some green in your pocket too. Look for a bulk source that will allow you purchases with free shipping and the savings continue to add up in your favor. So from the scouts, to school, family reunions, church fundraisers, band shirts, the possibilities are endless here. A top source for blank shirts is BulkLotShirts.com

Dallas Cowboys Persist Despite Setbacks in 2009

The last few seasons for the Dallas Cowboys have caused the team and fans serious heartbreak. The 07' 13-3 season ended with a disappointing loss to the New York Giants in the divisional playoffs, the 08' season ended in a 9-7 season missing the playoffs. The last game of the regular season against the Philadelphia Eagles was an embarrassment, 44-6 loss.

Tony Romo was anointed the next great quarterback prematurely perhaps - that doesn't excuse the rest of the team underperforming over the years. The NFC east will be very difficult to win for the Cowboys, the New York Giants look very strong thus far and the Philadelphia Eagles are strong as well.

The Cowboys have, if not the best, one of the best running duos in the NFL with RB Marion "The Barbarian" Barber and Felix Jones, - during the colder months running the ball will become even more important.

While America's Team hasn't won a playoff game since 1996 - fans and owner Jerry Jones feel as if the Cowboys are a contender every single season despite their flaws - why wouldn't they think that?

Tony Romo has excellent targets, the problem is he throws it to other team much too often and needs better ball control. The Cowboys are potentially a 10 win team - which can keep them competing for the NFC East title. With the Giants being the favorites to win the NFC East title, the Cowboys may settle on a wild card birth and make some noise in the playoffs and get that "no playoff win since 1996" off their back.

While the Cowboys stadium is nice and quite the spectacle, a nice stadium won't help a team win games - the Cowboys must do that themselves. Eliminating Romo's turnovers and running the ball effectively with their outstanding combination should make the Cowboys season very intriguing - as always.

Get more great Cowboys talk at the Dallas Cowboys forum at RootZoo, where you can also enjoy some of the best sports forums online.

With Futures Betting, Shopping For Value Is Key

There are several reasons the casual bettor stays away from futures wagers, but the main reason is that they don't want to have their money tied up for the course of an entire season. But some bettors have found value in playing futures and some lucky bettors have had huge paydays by picking a longshot early in the season.

The key to finding value in futures betting is to shop early and often - looking for a team with a realistic chance of competing for a title at iNFLated odds.

Jimmy Mason, spokesman for Nine Sportsbook, said future bets account for less than 1 percent of his book's handle with the bulk of futures action on the NFL. "Sharps tend to play more futures as they tend to have a larger bankroll to play with and the recreational players don't like to tie their money up long-term," Mason said. "Casual bettors tend to make one or two futures bets a year. Typically they bet on their home team and the team they actually think will win the Super Bowl with maybe a long shot thrown in for fun."

The risk-reward quotient involved in futures betting can be appealing with the possibility that a real long shot could win and a casual bettor or fan can place a small wager with the potential for a huge payoff.

Recent examples of this are the 2003 Florida Marlins who won the World Series at odds of 120-1 and the 1999 St. Louis Rams, who won the Super Bowl that year at preseason odds of 200/1. "We had a max payout on that one (Florida) and a number of sports books took a beating when a little known arena QB named Kurt Warner came from nowhere and destroyed many books when they won the Super Bowl," Mason commented.

To protect themselves against huge losses that could result from a longshot, Mason said, most books have a maximum payout on any single wager. In the case of Nine, Mason said, that payout is $50,000.

Because odds are updated until whatever point a sports book decides to close wagering on an event it is important to check odds often especially immediately following a significant change in circumstances such as a player transaction or injury. The astute bettor can take advantage of such change by acting quickly after learning of the news.

"Future odds are typically set and adjusted before the season starts and then updated weekly depending on team performance, player movement and maybe most importantly player injuries," added Mason.

An example of this fluctuation can be seen in the case of the New York Jets, a team with Super Bowl aspirations before the season that now finds themselves with 41-year-old Vinny Testerverde as its starting QB. BetCris has adjusted the odds accordingly and know has the Jets at 200-1 to reach the promised land compared to the 23-1 being offered at Legendz.

Some value to be had this year in the NFL might prove to be the Tampa Bay Bucs who at 4-0 are well on their way to the playoffs and could have been had at Bodog at 40-1 to win the Super Bowl in late July and were listed at 35-1 this week at Legendz. The nationally syndicated Americasline currently has the Bucs as an 8-1 choice to win the Super Bowl.

While some future bets offer long odds they don't offer what might be considered true value. Take for example the Arizona Cardinals, a 125-1 shot to win the Super Bowl according to Bodog.

Now if you really hate money and feel compelled to bet the Cards to take the Vince Lombardi Trophy back to the dessert come February, don't you think you ought to get more than 125-1?

Bodog also has the Air Force Academy as a 200-1 shot to win the NCAA Tournament. Considering Air Force has three tournament appearances all-time, and just once since 1962 (2004), I couldn't see wagering $1 at 200-1 even if they threw the rest of the Mountain West in with the Falcons.

When making a future bet it is important to shop around because the odds almost always differ from book to book and the difference can be dramatic. A look at NHL futures shows a bet on the New York Rangers to win the Stanley Cup can get anywhere from 36-1 to 80-1. While the Rangers probably don't stand much of a chance at competing for the Cup a diehard might consider plunking down $25 or $50 on the Blueshirts at 80-1.

Considering what goes into winning a championship and all the variables involved favorites on the future line don't offer much value to the casual bettor.

Canbet lists the Spurs as 5-2 favorites to repeat as NBA champs with the Miami Heat second choice at 4-1. The Philadelphia Flyers are the favorite to win the Stanley Cup at 5-1 or 6-1 at most sites. Tying up money for an entire season at those odds isn't all that appealing to most people, but might be to the large bettor who can afford to make a sizeable bet.

Also take into account where you place your future bet. It is one thing if you place it at a bricks and mortar casino in Vegas or Jamaica but when placing a future bet online it is even more important that usual to know how reputable the site is because you want to be sure they are still in business when its time to collect.

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BCS Strikes Again - Time For NCAA Football Playoffs

I think it is fair to say that America as a whole love playoffs and we love the exciting thrill of do or die games. We love March Madness for that reason. We love the NFL Playoffs for that reason. More so, we love champions, we love honoring the team that beats out every other team to claim that top spot. And no longer can we sit here and let the BCS dominate the college football postseason. Members of a House subcommittee in Washington are pushing for a change. One proposal is a 4 team play off. Personally, I think an 8 team playoff is the answer. Let the 4 bowl games (Orange, Fiesta, Rose, and Sugar Bowls) keep their name, add a semifinals, and then a championship. IT IS NOT THAT COMPLICATED.

People against this change are arguing that there are flaws with a playoff system. Some, like the TCU coach thinks the BCS helps out schools from smaller Conferences such as TCU and Boise State. What is he saying! You think Boise State who went 14-0 does not want a shot at winning the championship. Bill Hancock, the executive director of the BCS argues that the Regular Season is like a single game playoff system. No it is not. Because if it was, how did Boise State, TCU, and Cincinnati go undefeated and not have a chance to be number one?

Here is an excerpt from The BCS Chief: "The BCS has given teams like the Horned Frogs and the Boise State Broncos the chance to play in major bowl games, earn significant revenue, and become national powerhouses in college football. But more than that, the BCS has given such teams the chance to win a national title. Here is how Patterson explains it: "Is it easier to win one game for a championship? Or to have to win four? If you have a playoff, you practice and get on a plane and play. And if you lose, it's over. If you go to a bowl game, you're there seven days, and the kids can enjoy a place and get rewarded."

So how would a Playoff system not create revenue for these schools. Especially if they can even play more than one game- such as 2 or 3. Also, the BCS did not give such teams a chance to win a national title. Patterson the coach of TCU, is also clearly misguided. Yes winning a BCS bowl game means a lot to programs, but, why would winning a playoff game mean less? And who said winning a championship should be easy- you should have to beat the best teams in the country to earn the title.

All I know is that the BCS should be thrown out because it makes no sense, it hurts a lot more teams then it helps, and it only causes problems. Like in 2004- when USC and LSU were both champions. That should never happen, IT IS TIME FOR A CHANGE!

http://insideworldofsports.blogspot.com/

A Healthy LaDainian Tomlinson is Bad Medicine For the Rest of the NFL

Take notice, fantasy football geeks. LaDianian Tomlinson is healthy again. Last season LT had the worst season of his NFL career, averaging only 3.8 yards a carry. The critics came out of the woodwork saying he was over-the-hill, injury prone, and that his best days were over. However, LT did manage to rush for over a thousand yards (1,110), score twelve touchdowns (11 rushing, 1 receiving) and catch 52 passes, which most backs would be happy with. LT is not like most backs. He set the bar so high after his MVP season in 2006, that a season like 2008 had to be a disappointment. A number of factors led to 2008 being a down year for LT:

1. The injuries. In the season opener he hurt his right toe which prevented him from performing his signature "jump-cut" move which makes him so hard to tackle. In the last game of the regular season, after his toe had completely healed, he hurt his groin and only had five carries in the first playoff game.

2. Injuries in the offensive line. The Chargers have three Pro Bowl lineman. Two of them were hurt when the season started and it took a while for them to heal and get back into game shape.

3. The fullback position. Lorenzo Neal, one of the best fullbacks ever, was let go and the Chargers relied on two rookies to block for LT. Mike Tolbert was the starter, but got hurt so Jacob Hester replaced him. Hester might have been the league's smallest fullback at 5-11 and 225 pounds.

4. Philip Rivers. Because the running game wasn't productive in 2008, the Chargers had to rely more on the arm of Philip Rivers. The young QB responded by leading the league in passer rating and touchdown passes. With Norv Turner as the head coach the offensive focus has changed from power running to the passing game.

5. The defense. Last year the Bolts defense spent more time on the field and allowed other teams to control and chew up the clock. That meant less time and opportunities for LT to run.

This year there are good reasons for LT to have one of his best seasons ever. They are:

1. LT's health. Despite turning 30 recently, LT looks like a kid again. He shows no signs that any of last year's injuries have lingered to bother him.

2. A healthy offensive line. The left side of the line is healthy and nasty again.

3. Fullback improvement. Hester has bulked up to 238 and now has some experience in blocking for LT.

4. The receivers. The Chargers have some of the biggest receivers and tight ends in the league and they love to block for #21.

5. Offensive balance. Head coach Norv Turner has vowed a more balanced attack which means that the Bolts should be running the ball more.

6. The defense. Oddly enough, this may be the biggest factor contributing to an MVP type season for LT. Shawne Merriman is back and with new defensive coordinator, Ron Rivera, the Bolts defense should allow fewer points, turn the ball over more and spend less time on the field.

With a high powered offense scoring lots of points and a better defense, the Chargers should find themselves in more situations where they are ahead in the fourth quarter. That means they will want to run the ball more to eat up the clock and that equals more carries and yards for LT. A healthy dose of LT is bad medicine for the rest of the NFL. If he can stay healthy, LT has a good shot at winning his second MVP award and his first Super Bowl.

Tim Wayne has been following the Chargers since the mid-sixties and was a half-time participant in the first game ever played at San Diego Stadium (Now Qualcomm). Okay, he was dressed up as a clown, don't rub it in! He also was at the last AFL game ever played in San Diego when the Chargers beat the Bills in December of 1969. He is a fee lance writer and published poet.